St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

July 1, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Pittsburgh Pirates

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Pittsburgh Pirates (13 edges vs 10 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates 0.450 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.550 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.95 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.60 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 4.30 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.45 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 3.35 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.85 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 2.171 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.199 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Season to date — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Pittsburgh Pirates 3.49 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.38 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 3.90 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.97 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.667 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.583 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 91.2 vs St. Louis Cardinals 99.2 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates 2.05 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.91 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.88 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.32 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 9.68 vs St. Louis Cardinals 6.31 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates -3.20 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.82 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.35 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.46 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.85 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.93 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 2.22 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.53 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 22 vs St. Louis Cardinals 20.3 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Pittsburgh Pirates 0.372 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.362 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.447 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.468 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.412 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.417 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.552 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.664 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.370 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.415 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.447 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.459 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.435 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates -0.002 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.053 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates does not clearly favor either side.

Pittsburgh Pirates 0.429 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.571 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.14 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.14 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Lines

Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (Caesars)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 0, Pittsburgh Pirates 1 — Pittsburgh Pirates win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.