← All picks for June 29, 2025
New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates
June 29, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Pittsburgh Pirates
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Pittsburgh Pirates (15 edges vs 11 for New York Mets).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.450 vs New York Mets 0.400 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.45 vs New York Mets -1.15 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.95 vs New York Mets 4.15 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.50 vs New York Mets 5.30 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.688 vs New York Mets 0.562 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Season to date — leans New York Mets
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.35 vs New York Mets 4.32 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.98 vs New York Mets 3.73 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.300 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 89.6 vs New York Mets 101.9 — leans New York Mets
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 2.86 vs New York Mets 4.63 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.23 vs New York Mets 1.33 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 10.23 vs New York Mets 12.73 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.51 vs New York Mets -3.89 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.57 vs New York Mets 5.90 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.98 vs New York Mets 1.41 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 2.54 vs New York Mets 3.10 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 25 vs New York Mets 29 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.356 vs New York Mets 0.363 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.501 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.407 vs New York Mets 0.346 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.480 vs New York Mets 0.439 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.359 vs New York Mets 0.377 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.404 vs New York Mets 0.510 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.424 vs New York Mets 0.673 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.004 vs New York Mets 0.013 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.600 vs New York Mets 0.400 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.40 vs New York Mets -3.40 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Betting Lines
New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
New York Mets 1, Pittsburgh Pirates 12 — Pittsburgh Pirates win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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