← All picks for June 28, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
June 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Atlanta Braves
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (16 edges vs 10 for Atlanta Braves).
Note: the model leans Atlanta Braves even though the simple edge count favors Philadelphia Phillies. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Atlanta Braves 0.500 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.550 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves 0.10 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.60 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves 4.10 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.60 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves 4 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves 0.244 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.014 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Atlanta Braves 3.95 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.56 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves 3.86 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.96 — roughly even
- Atlanta Braves 0.714 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.364 — leans Atlanta Braves
- Atlanta Braves 96.5 vs Philadelphia Phillies 101.1 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Atlanta Braves
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Atlanta Braves.
- Atlanta Braves 2.80 vs Philadelphia Phillies 9.64 — leans Atlanta Braves
- Atlanta Braves 0.88 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.93 — leans Atlanta Braves
- Atlanta Braves 9.17 vs Philadelphia Phillies 10.41 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves -0.80 vs Philadelphia Phillies 13.79 — leans Atlanta Braves
- Atlanta Braves 2.70 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.15 — leans Atlanta Braves
- Atlanta Braves 1.24 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.38 — leans Atlanta Braves
- Atlanta Braves 3.27 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.50 — leans Atlanta Braves
- Atlanta Braves 23.3 vs Philadelphia Phillies 15.7 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Offense & matchup — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Atlanta Braves 0.372 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.384 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves 0.416 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.481 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves 0.348 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.397 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves 0.324 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.505 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves 0.409 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.400 — roughly even
- Atlanta Braves 0.515 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.489 — leans Atlanta Braves
- Atlanta Braves 0.933 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.516 — leans Atlanta Braves
- Atlanta Braves 0.037 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.016 — leans Atlanta Braves
Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Atlanta Braves 0.375 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.625 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves -0.88 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.88 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Betting Lines
Atlanta Braves -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (Fanatics)
Final Score
Philadelphia Phillies 1, Atlanta Braves 6 — Atlanta Braves win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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