← All picks for June 28, 2025
New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates
June 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Pittsburgh Pirates
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (13 edges vs 12 for Pittsburgh Pirates).
Note: the model leans Pittsburgh Pirates even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.450 vs New York Mets 0.450 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.15 vs New York Mets -0.70 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.60 vs New York Mets 4.25 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.45 vs New York Mets 4.95 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.667 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.296 vs New York Mets 0.941 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Season to date — leans New York Mets
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.29 vs New York Mets 4.35 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4 vs New York Mets 3.67 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.400 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 89.3 vs New York Mets 101.9 — leans New York Mets
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.86 vs New York Mets 6.62 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.29 vs New York Mets 1.75 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.86 vs New York Mets 6.62 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates -0.57 vs New York Mets -4.03 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.46 vs New York Mets 5.19 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.93 vs New York Mets 1.31 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 2.86 vs New York Mets 2.68 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 21.3 vs New York Mets 26 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.354 vs New York Mets 0.366 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.416 vs New York Mets 0.500 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.368 vs New York Mets 0.296 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.430 vs New York Mets 0.350 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.366 vs New York Mets 0.395 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.444 vs New York Mets 0.512 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.806 — leans New York Mets
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.012 vs New York Mets 0.030 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 2.50 vs New York Mets -2.50 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Betting Lines
New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (BetOnline.ag)
Final Score
New York Mets 2, Pittsburgh Pirates 9 — Pittsburgh Pirates win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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