Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros

June 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Houston Astros

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Houston Astros (16 edges vs 9 for Chicago Cubs).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Houston Astros

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Houston Astros.

Houston Astros 0.750 vs Chicago Cubs 0.450 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 1.60 vs Chicago Cubs -0.35 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 4.75 vs Chicago Cubs 4.20 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 3.15 vs Chicago Cubs 4.55 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 1 vs Chicago Cubs 0.667 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 0.772 vs Chicago Cubs 1.190 — leans Chicago Cubs

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros.

Houston Astros 4.21 vs Chicago Cubs 5.31 — leans Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros 3.56 vs Chicago Cubs 4.14 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 0.900 vs Chicago Cubs 0.400 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 99.3 vs Chicago Cubs 104.2 — leans Chicago Cubs

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Houston Astros

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Houston Astros.

Houston Astros 3.20 vs Chicago Cubs 6.41 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 1.18 vs Chicago Cubs 1.58 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 12.43 vs Chicago Cubs 4.73 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 5.64 vs Chicago Cubs -0.72 — leans Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros 3 vs Chicago Cubs 3.27 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 1.11 vs Chicago Cubs 1.18 — roughly even
Houston Astros 2.66 vs Chicago Cubs 3.60 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 13 vs Chicago Cubs 17.7 — leans Houston Astros

Offense & matchup — leans Chicago Cubs

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Houston Astros 0.391 vs Chicago Cubs 0.343 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 0.490 vs Chicago Cubs 0.522 — leans Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros 0.415 vs Chicago Cubs 0.418 — roughly even
Houston Astros 0.526 vs Chicago Cubs 0.672 — leans Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros 0.373 vs Chicago Cubs 0.373 — roughly even
Houston Astros 0.445 vs Chicago Cubs 0.529 — leans Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros 0.661 vs Chicago Cubs 0.818 — leans Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros -0.017 vs Chicago Cubs 0.031 — leans Chicago Cubs

Series & head-to-head — leans Houston Astros

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Houston Astros.

Houston Astros 1 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — leans Houston Astros
Houston Astros 3 vs Chicago Cubs -3 — leans Houston Astros

Betting Lines

Chicago Cubs +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Chicago Cubs 12, Houston Astros 3 — Chicago Cubs win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.