Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals

June 26, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Chicago Cubs

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Chicago Cubs (12 edges vs 11 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.450 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.35 vs Chicago Cubs -0.15 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.55 vs Chicago Cubs 4.25 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.20 vs Chicago Cubs 4.40 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 vs Chicago Cubs 0.333 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.172 vs Chicago Cubs 1.333 — leans Chicago Cubs

Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.39 vs Chicago Cubs 5.36 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 4.01 vs Chicago Cubs 4.16 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.400 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 99.8 vs Chicago Cubs 104.4 — leans Chicago Cubs

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

St. Louis Cardinals 5.13 vs Chicago Cubs 4.10 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 1.29 vs Chicago Cubs 1.37 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 7.86 vs Chicago Cubs 8.20 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 4.71 vs Chicago Cubs -0.74 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 3.28 vs Chicago Cubs 6.14 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.05 vs Chicago Cubs 1.55 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 3.30 vs Chicago Cubs 5.15 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 24.7 vs Chicago Cubs 22 — leans Chicago Cubs

Offense & matchup — leans Chicago Cubs

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.370 vs Chicago Cubs 0.345 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.468 vs Chicago Cubs 0.515 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 0.306 vs Chicago Cubs 0.420 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 0.348 vs Chicago Cubs 0.711 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 0.402 vs Chicago Cubs 0.401 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.484 vs Chicago Cubs 0.551 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 0.776 vs Chicago Cubs 0.575 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.032 vs Chicago Cubs 0.056 — leans Chicago Cubs

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals does not clearly favor either side.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 vs Chicago Cubs 0.333 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals -0.33 vs Chicago Cubs 0.33 — leans Chicago Cubs

Betting Lines

Chicago Cubs +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (DraftKings)

Final Score

Chicago Cubs 3, St. Louis Cardinals 0 — Chicago Cubs win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.