New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds

June 25, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Cincinnati Reds (13 edges vs 11 for New York Yankees).

Note: the model leans New York Yankees even though the simple edge count favors Cincinnati Reds. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Cincinnati Reds

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 0.700 vs New York Yankees 0.400 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.60 vs New York Yankees 0.25 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 5 vs New York Yankees 3.90 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 4.40 vs New York Yankees 3.65 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 1 vs New York Yankees 0.333 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 1 vs New York Yankees 0.769 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Cincinnati Reds 4.57 vs New York Yankees 5 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 4.07 vs New York Yankees 3.70 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.818 vs New York Yankees 0.375 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 98.8 vs New York Yankees 107.1 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Cincinnati Reds 2.79 vs New York Yankees 3.77 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 1.21 vs New York Yankees 1.03 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 6.52 vs New York Yankees 8.71 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 1.59 vs New York Yankees 0.29 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 3.03 vs New York Yankees 3.44 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 1.42 vs New York Yankees 1.42 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 3.94 vs New York Yankees 3.70 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 29.7 vs New York Yankees 18.3 — leans New York Yankees

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 0.387 vs New York Yankees 0.364 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.513 vs New York Yankees 0.463 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.378 vs New York Yankees 0.378 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.508 vs New York Yankees 0.512 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.372 vs New York Yankees 0.419 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.512 vs New York Yankees 0.573 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 1.043 vs New York Yankees 0.678 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds -0.014 vs New York Yankees 0.055 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — leans Cincinnati Reds

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 1 vs New York Yankees 0 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 3 vs New York Yankees -3 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 7, Cincinnati Reds 1 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.