New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds

June 24, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (16 edges vs 9 for Cincinnati Reds).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Cincinnati Reds

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 0.650 vs New York Yankees 0.450 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.50 vs New York Yankees 0.35 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 4.85 vs New York Yankees 3.85 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 4.35 vs New York Yankees 3.50 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.667 vs New York Yankees 0.667 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 1.031 vs New York Yankees 1.212 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Cincinnati Reds 4.57 vs New York Yankees 5.01 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 4.07 vs New York Yankees 3.68 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.727 vs New York Yankees 0.429 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 98.8 vs New York Yankees 107.5 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Cincinnati Reds 4.25 vs New York Yankees 3.60 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 1.28 vs New York Yankees 1.03 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 8.60 vs New York Yankees 10.20 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0 vs New York Yankees -5.74 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 3.33 vs New York Yankees 2 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 1.52 vs New York Yankees 1.33 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 3.95 vs New York Yankees 3.82 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 23.7 vs New York Yankees 18 — leans New York Yankees

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Cincinnati Reds 0.378 vs New York Yankees 0.366 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.507 vs New York Yankees 0.467 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.360 vs New York Yankees 0.371 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.476 vs New York Yankees 0.478 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.392 vs New York Yankees 0.415 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.491 vs New York Yankees 0.565 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.800 vs New York Yankees 0.673 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.015 vs New York Yankees 0.049 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — leans Cincinnati Reds

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 1 vs New York Yankees 0 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 5 vs New York Yankees -5 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 4, Cincinnati Reds 5 — Cincinnati Reds win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.