Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals

June 24, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (18 edges vs 8 for Chicago Cubs).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.450 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.65 vs Chicago Cubs -0.35 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.70 vs Chicago Cubs 3.90 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.05 vs Chicago Cubs 4.25 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 vs Chicago Cubs 0.333 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.064 vs Chicago Cubs 1.538 — leans Chicago Cubs

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.40 vs Chicago Cubs 5.30 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 3.93 vs Chicago Cubs 4.16 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.400 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 100.1 vs Chicago Cubs 103.9 — leans Chicago Cubs

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 2.73 vs Chicago Cubs 3.30 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.81 vs Chicago Cubs 0.93 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 7.89 vs Chicago Cubs 6.90 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals -0.45 vs Chicago Cubs -2.32 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 4.88 vs Chicago Cubs 7.86 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.12 vs Chicago Cubs 1.86 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.10 vs Chicago Cubs 6.06 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 29 vs Chicago Cubs 30.3 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Offense & matchup — leans Chicago Cubs

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.385 vs Chicago Cubs 0.344 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.472 vs Chicago Cubs 0.507 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 0.447 vs Chicago Cubs 0.406 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.614 vs Chicago Cubs 0.703 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 0.394 vs Chicago Cubs 0.401 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.473 vs Chicago Cubs 0.549 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 vs Chicago Cubs 0.575 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.009 vs Chicago Cubs 0.057 — leans Chicago Cubs

Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 1 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 6 vs Chicago Cubs -6 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Lines

Chicago Cubs +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Chicago Cubs 7, St. Louis Cardinals 8 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.