New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds

June 23, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Cincinnati Reds

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (18 edges vs 7 for Cincinnati Reds).

Note: the model leans Cincinnati Reds even though the simple edge count favors New York Yankees. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Cincinnati Reds 0.600 vs New York Yankees 0.500 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.05 vs New York Yankees 0.80 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 4.70 vs New York Yankees 4.15 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 4.65 vs New York Yankees 3.35 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.333 vs New York Yankees 0.667 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.709 vs New York Yankees 1.285 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Cincinnati Reds 4.55 vs New York Yankees 5.06 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 4.11 vs New York Yankees 3.65 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.700 vs New York Yankees 0.571 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 98.3 vs New York Yankees 107.8 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

Cincinnati Reds 4.78 vs New York Yankees 15.26 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 1.22 vs New York Yankees 2.35 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 8.54 vs New York Yankees 4.70 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds -4.34 vs New York Yankees 0 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 4.10 vs New York Yankees 1.56 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 1.67 vs New York Yankees 1.21 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 4.20 vs New York Yankees 3.33 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 22.3 vs New York Yankees 17.3 — leans New York Yankees

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Cincinnati Reds 0.359 vs New York Yankees 0.378 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.472 vs New York Yankees 0.468 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.339 vs New York Yankees 0.384 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.470 vs New York Yankees 0.544 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.388 vs New York Yankees 0.423 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.491 vs New York Yankees 0.570 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.551 vs New York Yankees 0.794 — leans New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds 0.028 vs New York Yankees 0.045 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds does not clearly favor either side.

Cincinnati Reds 0.500 vs New York Yankees 0.500 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0 vs New York Yankees 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 10.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 1, Cincinnati Reds 6 — Cincinnati Reds win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.