Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals

June 23, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Chicago Cubs

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (11 edges vs 9 for Chicago Cubs).

Note: the model leans Chicago Cubs even though the simple edge count favors St. Louis Cardinals. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.450 vs Chicago Cubs 0.500 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.35 vs Chicago Cubs 0.15 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.30 vs Chicago Cubs 4.15 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 3.95 vs Chicago Cubs 4 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 vs Chicago Cubs 0.333 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.008 vs Chicago Cubs 1.606 — leans Chicago Cubs

Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.36 vs Chicago Cubs 5.35 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 3.95 vs Chicago Cubs 4.12 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.417 vs Chicago Cubs 0.444 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 99.4 vs Chicago Cubs 104.2 — leans Chicago Cubs

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 6.33 vs Chicago Cubs 5.79 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 1.41 vs Chicago Cubs 1.36 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 6.33 vs Chicago Cubs 9.64 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals -5.40 vs Chicago Cubs 3.31 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 6 vs Chicago Cubs 7.90 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.26 vs Chicago Cubs 1.87 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.51 vs Chicago Cubs 5.77 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 30 vs Chicago Cubs 27.3 — leans Chicago Cubs

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.377 vs Chicago Cubs 0.353 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.436 vs Chicago Cubs 0.514 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 0.425 vs Chicago Cubs 0.275 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.521 vs Chicago Cubs 0.438 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.394 vs Chicago Cubs 0.382 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.473 vs Chicago Cubs 0.481 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 vs Chicago Cubs 1.049 — leans Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals 0.018 vs Chicago Cubs 0.029 — leans Chicago Cubs

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals does not clearly favor either side.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.500 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

Chicago Cubs +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (BetMGM)

Final Score

Chicago Cubs 2, St. Louis Cardinals 8 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.