Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals

June 22, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Cincinnati Reds

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (13 edges vs 10 for Cincinnati Reds).

Note: the model leans Cincinnati Reds even though the simple edge count favors St. Louis Cardinals. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.450 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.550 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 0.35 vs Cincinnati Reds -0.20 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.60 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.50 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 4.25 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.70 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1 vs Cincinnati Reds 0 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.449 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.815 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.40 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.56 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 3.95 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.15 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.417 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.400 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 100.1 vs Cincinnati Reds 98.5 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Cincinnati Reds

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

St. Louis Cardinals 5.33 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.89 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 1.44 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.90 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 6 vs Cincinnati Reds 7.02 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals -3.01 vs Cincinnati Reds -2.10 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 5.88 vs Cincinnati Reds 3.95 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 1.27 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.57 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.79 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.05 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 26 vs Cincinnati Reds 20.3 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.382 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.369 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.442 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.484 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 0.387 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.375 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.484 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.433 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.392 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.387 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.502 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.487 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.898 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.533 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.009 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.018 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.571 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.429 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.43 vs Cincinnati Reds -1.43 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Lines

Cincinnati Reds +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Cincinnati Reds 4, St. Louis Cardinals 1 — Cincinnati Reds win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.