New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

June 22, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (14 edges vs 8 for Philadelphia Phillies).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.550 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs New York Mets 0.40 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 4.50 vs New York Mets 4.95 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 4.50 vs New York Mets 4.55 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.185 vs New York Mets 0.943 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.58 vs New York Mets 4.44 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 4.14 vs New York Mets 3.58 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 vs New York Mets 0.500 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 101.5 vs New York Mets 103.2 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies 10.65 vs New York Mets 2.23 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 2.15 vs New York Mets 0.99 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 11.41 vs New York Mets 6.69 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.04 vs New York Mets -0.49 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 6.30 vs New York Mets 6.56 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.45 vs New York Mets 1.63 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 5.95 vs New York Mets 4.81 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 20 vs New York Mets 18.7 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.377 vs New York Mets 0.384 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.471 vs New York Mets 0.544 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.313 vs New York Mets 0.319 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.362 vs New York Mets 0.420 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.399 vs New York Mets 0.379 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.480 vs New York Mets 0.491 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.933 vs New York Mets 1.067 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.022 vs New York Mets -0.005 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.200 vs New York Mets 0.800 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies -1 vs New York Mets 1 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 1, Philadelphia Phillies 7 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.