Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals

June 21, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (12 edges vs 9 for Cincinnati Reds).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.600 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals -0.05 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.05 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 4.35 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.55 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 4.40 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.50 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 1 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.333 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.456 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.733 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — leans Cincinnati Reds

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.38 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.55 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 3.94 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.13 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.364 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.500 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 100.1 vs Cincinnati Reds 98.4 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 2.73 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.76 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.18 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.94 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 10.31 vs Cincinnati Reds 6.35 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 2.69 vs Cincinnati Reds -8.10 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 5.73 vs Cincinnati Reds 6.65 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.36 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.98 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.37 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.81 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 22 vs Cincinnati Reds 15.7 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Offense & matchup — leans Cincinnati Reds

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.376 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.368 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.430 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.475 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 0.377 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.398 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 0.471 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.495 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 0.392 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.382 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.466 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.436 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.539 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.429 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.016 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.015 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.500 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 1.50 vs Cincinnati Reds -1.50 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Lines

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Cincinnati Reds 5, St. Louis Cardinals 6 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.