← All picks for June 21, 2025
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
June 21, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (15 edges vs 6 for New York Mets).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.550 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.15 vs New York Mets 0.15 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.40 vs New York Mets 4.60 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.25 vs New York Mets 4.45 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 1 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.212 vs New York Mets 0.217 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.59 vs New York Mets 4.35 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.05 vs New York Mets 3.57 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 vs New York Mets 0.455 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 101.7 vs New York Mets 102.3 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 2.21 vs New York Mets 6.75 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.03 vs New York Mets 1.64 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 7.52 vs New York Mets 7.17 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs New York Mets 0.80 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.76 vs New York Mets 6.57 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.35 vs New York Mets 1.70 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.45 vs New York Mets 4.60 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 17 vs New York Mets 19.3 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Offense & matchup — Mixed
The offensive matchup is closely contested between New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.369 vs New York Mets 0.377 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.471 vs New York Mets 0.530 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.401 vs New York Mets 0.336 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.521 vs New York Mets 0.420 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.385 vs New York Mets 0.387 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.473 vs New York Mets 0.508 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.255 vs New York Mets 0.696 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.016 vs New York Mets 0.010 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Series & head-to-head — Mixed
Head-to-head history between New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies does not clearly favor either side.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.250 vs New York Mets 0.750 — leans New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.50 vs New York Mets -0.50 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Betting Lines
New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 10.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
New York Mets 11, Philadelphia Phillies 4 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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