Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals

June 20, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Cincinnati Reds

Tracked inputs were split fairly evenly between the two sides.

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Cincinnati Reds

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.600 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals -0.20 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.25 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 4.15 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.60 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 4.35 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.35 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.667 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 1.044 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.087 — roughly even

Season to date — leans Cincinnati Reds

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.36 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.60 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 3.98 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.10 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.300 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.500 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 100.1 vs Cincinnati Reds 98.9 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 6.23 vs Cincinnati Reds 3.21 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 1.46 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.39 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 7.62 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.46 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals -3.44 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.33 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 5.32 vs Cincinnati Reds 7.03 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.44 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.81 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.71 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.50 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 26.3 vs Cincinnati Reds 16.7 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.378 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.377 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.440 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.498 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 0.403 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.404 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.514 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.501 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.389 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.490 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.465 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.678 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.453 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.022 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.012 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals does not clearly favor either side.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.600 — leans Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals 0.80 vs Cincinnati Reds -0.80 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Lines

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (LowVig.ag)

Final Score

Cincinnati Reds 1, St. Louis Cardinals 6 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.