Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets

June 14, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Tampa Bay Rays (13 edges vs 12 for New York Mets).

Note: the model leans New York Mets even though the simple edge count favors Tampa Bay Rays. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

New York Mets 0.750 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.700 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.85 vs Tampa Bay Rays 2.70 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 5.30 vs Tampa Bay Rays 5.75 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 3.45 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.05 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 0.667 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.881 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.638 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.56 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.46 — roughly even
New York Mets 3.25 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.75 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.769 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.500 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 104.0 vs Tampa Bay Rays 95.7 — leans New York Mets

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

New York Mets 4.88 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.62 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 1.38 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.69 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 12 vs Tampa Bay Rays 7.45 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.43 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.53 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 4.91 vs Tampa Bay Rays 2.62 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 1.59 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.25 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 2.96 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.56 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 19 vs Tampa Bay Rays 18 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.404 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.376 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.548 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.512 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.453 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.401 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.663 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.413 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.394 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.395 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.528 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.468 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.818 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.922 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets -0.010 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.019 — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Series & head-to-head — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

New York Mets 0 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets -2 vs Tampa Bay Rays 2 — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Tampa Bay Rays 8, New York Mets 4 — Tampa Bay Rays win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.