Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets

June 13, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (13 edges vs 8 for Tampa Bay Rays).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

New York Mets 0.800 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.700 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.15 vs Tampa Bay Rays 2.80 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 5.30 vs Tampa Bay Rays 5.80 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 3.15 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3 — roughly even
New York Mets 1 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.881 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.805 — roughly even

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.56 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.43 — roughly even
New York Mets 3.20 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.74 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.833 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.429 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 104.3 vs Tampa Bay Rays 95.3 — leans New York Mets

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

New York Mets 3.23 vs Tampa Bay Rays 5.14 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.11 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.21 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 6.16 vs Tampa Bay Rays 9.96 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 1.09 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.56 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 3.32 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.68 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.47 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.32 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 2.42 vs Tampa Bay Rays 2.15 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets 18 vs Tampa Bay Rays 19 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.405 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.376 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.561 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.522 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.473 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.369 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.749 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.373 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.392 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.388 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.497 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.472 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.702 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.824 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets -0.012 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.011 — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets does not clearly favor either side.

New York Mets 0.500 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.500 — roughly even
New York Mets 0 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Tampa Bay Rays 7, New York Mets 5 — Tampa Bay Rays win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.