← All picks for June 13, 2025
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
June 13, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Pittsburgh Pirates
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Chicago Cubs (16 edges vs 8 for Pittsburgh Pirates).
Note: the model leans Pittsburgh Pirates even though the simple edge count favors Chicago Cubs. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Chicago Cubs
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Chicago Cubs 0.650 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.550 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 1.10 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.60 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 4.40 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.05 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 3.30 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.45 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.667 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.333 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.985 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.741 — leans Chicago Cubs
Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Chicago Cubs 5.49 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.24 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 3.99 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.857 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.429 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 103.9 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 90.0 — leans Chicago Cubs
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Chicago Cubs 3.71 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.74 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chicago Cubs 1.35 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.58 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chicago Cubs 6.75 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 9.66 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chicago Cubs 0.54 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.95 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 1.59 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.86 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chicago Cubs 1.35 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.67 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chicago Cubs 3.39 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.86 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chicago Cubs 16 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 15.7 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Chicago Cubs
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Chicago Cubs 0.359 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.382 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chicago Cubs 0.495 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.463 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.372 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.394 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chicago Cubs 0.516 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.515 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.403 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.368 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.529 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.468 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.575 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.429 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.044 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -0.015 — leans Chicago Cubs
Series & head-to-head — leans Chicago Cubs
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Chicago Cubs 0.750 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.250 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 3.50 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -3.50 — leans Chicago Cubs
Betting Lines
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 | O/U 6.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Pittsburgh Pirates 2, Chicago Cubs 1 — Pittsburgh Pirates win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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