Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies

June 11, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Chicago Cubs

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Chicago Cubs (20 edges vs 5 for Philadelphia Phillies).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Chicago Cubs

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.400 vs Chicago Cubs 0.650 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies -1.05 vs Chicago Cubs 1.90 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 3.65 vs Chicago Cubs 5.20 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 4.70 vs Chicago Cubs 3.30 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 vs Chicago Cubs 0.333 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.822 vs Chicago Cubs 0.705 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.42 vs Chicago Cubs 5.58 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 4.25 vs Chicago Cubs 3.97 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 vs Chicago Cubs 0.571 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 99.6 vs Chicago Cubs 104.7 — leans Chicago Cubs

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Chicago Cubs

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Philadelphia Phillies 8.77 vs Chicago Cubs 5.93 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 1.87 vs Chicago Cubs 1.13 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 11.22 vs Chicago Cubs 11.20 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies -14.38 vs Chicago Cubs 1.41 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 4.07 vs Chicago Cubs 0.79 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 1.36 vs Chicago Cubs 1.28 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 5.07 vs Chicago Cubs 3.14 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 24.3 vs Chicago Cubs 22.7 — leans Chicago Cubs

Offense & matchup — leans Chicago Cubs

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.354 vs Chicago Cubs 0.385 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 0.431 vs Chicago Cubs 0.524 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 0.312 vs Chicago Cubs 0.329 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 0.377 vs Chicago Cubs 0.454 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 0.390 vs Chicago Cubs 0.407 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 0.488 vs Chicago Cubs 0.509 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 0.406 vs Chicago Cubs 1.049 — leans Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 0.035 vs Chicago Cubs 0.023 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 vs Chicago Cubs 0.400 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.20 vs Chicago Cubs -0.20 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Lines

Chicago Cubs +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Chicago Cubs 2, Philadelphia Phillies 7 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.