Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals

June 9, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Toronto Blue Jays

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Toronto Blue Jays (16 edges vs 5 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Toronto Blue Jays

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Toronto Blue Jays.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.650 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals -0.55 vs Toronto Blue Jays 1.30 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 3.90 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.95 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 4.45 vs Toronto Blue Jays 3.65 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.667 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.855 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.943 — roughly even

Season to date — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.30 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.12 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 3.90 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.13 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.538 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.444 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 100.1 vs Toronto Blue Jays 98.9 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Toronto Blue Jays

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Toronto Blue Jays.

St. Louis Cardinals 5.10 vs Toronto Blue Jays 3.38 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 1.20 vs Toronto Blue Jays 1.06 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 6.90 vs Toronto Blue Jays 7.67 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals -3.39 vs Toronto Blue Jays 2.67 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 2.42 vs Toronto Blue Jays 1.67 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 1.30 vs Toronto Blue Jays 1.04 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 3.06 vs Toronto Blue Jays 2.95 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 27 vs Toronto Blue Jays 27 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Toronto Blue Jays

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Toronto Blue Jays.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.358 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.386 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 0.423 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.490 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 0.379 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.315 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.439 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.516 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 0.378 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.416 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 0.452 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.514 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 0.533 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.643 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals 0.019 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.030 — leans Toronto Blue Jays

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals does not clearly favor either side.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0.500 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs Toronto Blue Jays 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Toronto Blue Jays 5, St. Louis Cardinals 4 — Toronto Blue Jays win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.