New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers

June 4, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Los Angeles Dodgers (13 edges vs 12 for New York Mets).

Note: the model leans New York Mets even though the simple edge count favors Los Angeles Dodgers. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Los Angeles Dodgers 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.600 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 1.10 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 6.20 vs New York Mets 3.50 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 5.10 vs New York Mets 3.50 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.667 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.645 vs New York Mets 1.333 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers 5.77 vs New York Mets 4.34 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 4.46 vs New York Mets 3.26 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.375 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 110.0 vs New York Mets 102.2 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

Los Angeles Dodgers 5.40 vs New York Mets 3.52 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 1.56 vs New York Mets 1.22 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 7.56 vs New York Mets 7.83 — roughly even
Los Angeles Dodgers -2.33 vs New York Mets -2.42 — roughly even
Los Angeles Dodgers 2.05 vs New York Mets 2.60 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 1.10 vs New York Mets 1.44 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 2.57 vs New York Mets 4.08 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 20.7 vs New York Mets 16.3 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers 0.396 vs New York Mets 0.377 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.526 vs New York Mets 0.444 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.430 vs New York Mets 0.417 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.630 vs New York Mets 0.539 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.395 vs New York Mets 0.396 — roughly even
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.526 vs New York Mets 0.502 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.527 vs New York Mets 0.586 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers -0.001 vs New York Mets 0.019 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Los Angeles Dodgers 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.600 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers -0.60 vs New York Mets 0.60 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 6, Los Angeles Dodgers 1 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.