New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers

June 3, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Los Angeles Dodgers

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (16 edges vs 11 for Los Angeles Dodgers).

Note: the model leans Los Angeles Dodgers even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Los Angeles Dodgers 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.650 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 1.40 vs New York Mets 0.25 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 6.30 vs New York Mets 3.55 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 4.90 vs New York Mets 3.30 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.333 vs New York Mets 1 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 1.270 vs New York Mets 1.596 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers 5.77 vs New York Mets 4.33 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 4.45 vs New York Mets 3.21 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.462 vs New York Mets 0.429 — roughly even
Los Angeles Dodgers 110.1 vs New York Mets 101.6 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Los Angeles Dodgers 6.48 vs New York Mets 5.70 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 1.80 vs New York Mets 1.52 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 4.32 vs New York Mets 12.93 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 8.61 vs New York Mets 4.90 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 5.24 vs New York Mets 3.63 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 1.43 vs New York Mets 1.34 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 3.06 vs New York Mets 3.50 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 15.3 vs New York Mets 13 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — leans Los Angeles Dodgers

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers 0.402 vs New York Mets 0.365 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.551 vs New York Mets 0.427 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.430 vs New York Mets 0.348 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.630 vs New York Mets 0.533 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.428 vs New York Mets 0.401 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.608 vs New York Mets 0.491 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.539 vs New York Mets 0.922 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.026 vs New York Mets 0.036 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Los Angeles Dodgers 0.250 vs New York Mets 0.750 — leans New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers -1 vs New York Mets 1 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (LowVig.ag)

Final Score

New York Mets 5, Los Angeles Dodgers 6 — Los Angeles Dodgers win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.