Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets

May 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Chicago White Sox

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (19 edges vs 4 for Chicago White Sox).

Note: the model leans Chicago White Sox even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.600 vs Chicago White Sox 0.350 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.30 vs Chicago White Sox -1.30 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.55 vs Chicago White Sox 3.15 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.25 vs Chicago White Sox 4.45 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs Chicago White Sox 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.033 vs Chicago White Sox 0.952 — roughly even

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.27 vs Chicago White Sox 3.40 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.16 vs Chicago White Sox 4.36 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.727 vs Chicago White Sox 0.182 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 101.1 vs Chicago White Sox 87.8 — leans New York Mets

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 2.62 vs Chicago White Sox 2.42 — roughly even
New York Mets 1.25 vs Chicago White Sox 1.27 — roughly even
New York Mets 7.88 vs Chicago White Sox 9.35 — leans Chicago White Sox
New York Mets -2.66 vs Chicago White Sox -0.45 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.71 vs Chicago White Sox 4.58 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.95 vs Chicago White Sox 1.32 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.00 vs Chicago White Sox 4.83 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 22 vs Chicago White Sox 15.7 — leans Chicago White Sox

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.382 vs Chicago White Sox 0.334 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.450 vs Chicago White Sox 0.429 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.395 vs Chicago White Sox 0.401 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.428 vs Chicago White Sox 0.471 — leans Chicago White Sox
New York Mets 0.397 vs Chicago White Sox 0.395 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.532 vs Chicago White Sox 0.419 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.818 vs Chicago White Sox 0.533 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.016 vs Chicago White Sox 0.061 — leans Chicago White Sox

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 1 vs Chicago White Sox 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.50 vs Chicago White Sox -1.50 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Chicago White Sox 9, New York Mets 4 — Chicago White Sox win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.