← All picks for May 28, 2025
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks
May 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Pittsburgh Pirates
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Arizona Diamondbacks (16 edges vs 9 for Pittsburgh Pirates).
Note: the model leans Pittsburgh Pirates even though the simple edge count favors Arizona Diamondbacks. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed
Recent form factors are roughly even between Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.450 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.400 — roughly even
- Arizona Diamondbacks -0.10 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -0.90 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 4.90 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 2.80 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.70 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.333 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.333 — roughly even
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.952 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.667 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Season to date — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5.05 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.09 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.32 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.545 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.200 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 107.9 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 89.0 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 4.91 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 2.32 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Arizona Diamondbacks 1.33 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.13 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Arizona Diamondbacks 8.59 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 9 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Arizona Diamondbacks -5.21 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.25 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 3.07 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.22 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 1.36 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.50 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 2.90 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.90 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 10 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 17.3 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Offense & matchup — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.397 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.354 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.565 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.392 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.328 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.412 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.444 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.521 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.397 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.361 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.538 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.417 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.684 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.302 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks -0.000 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.007 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Series & head-to-head — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.500 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 — roughly even
- Arizona Diamondbacks 1 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -1 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Betting Lines
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Pittsburgh Pirates 10, Arizona Diamondbacks 1 — Pittsburgh Pirates win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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