Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

May 25, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Milwaukee Brewers

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Milwaukee Brewers (13 edges vs 9 for Pittsburgh Pirates).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

Pittsburgh Pirates 0.350 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.450 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.15 vs Milwaukee Brewers -0.60 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates 2.30 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.35 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates 3.45 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.95 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.667 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.333 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.884 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.393 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Season to date — leans Milwaukee Brewers

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.

Pittsburgh Pirates 3 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.26 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates 4.25 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.38 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.545 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.333 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 88.0 vs Milwaukee Brewers 92.0 — leans Milwaukee Brewers

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Milwaukee Brewers

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.

Pittsburgh Pirates 1.93 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.69 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.07 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.81 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates 6.11 vs Milwaukee Brewers 12.94 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates 5.28 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates 5.40 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.28 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.65 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.60 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 3.50 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.21 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 20 vs Milwaukee Brewers 30.7 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Offense & matchup — leans Milwaukee Brewers

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.

Pittsburgh Pirates 0.351 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.344 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.368 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.402 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.438 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.352 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.479 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.370 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.373 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.381 — roughly even
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.402 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.430 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.429 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.812 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.022 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.037 — leans Milwaukee Brewers

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates does not clearly favor either side.

Pittsburgh Pirates 0.667 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.333 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates -0.33 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.33 — leans Milwaukee Brewers

Betting Lines

Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Milwaukee Brewers 6, Pittsburgh Pirates 5 — Milwaukee Brewers win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.