← All picks for May 24, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
May 24, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Pittsburgh Pirates
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Milwaukee Brewers (13 edges vs 12 for Pittsburgh Pirates).
Note: the model leans Pittsburgh Pirates even though the simple edge count favors Milwaukee Brewers. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed
Recent form factors are roughly even between Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.300 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.450 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates -1.45 vs Milwaukee Brewers -1.05 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 2.40 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.30 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.85 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.35 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.667 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.333 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.944 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.717 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Season to date — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.02 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.33 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4.31 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.42 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.455 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.375 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 87.7 vs Milwaukee Brewers 91.8 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.60 vs Milwaukee Brewers 6.20 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.27 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.50 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 8.40 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.11 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.66 vs Milwaukee Brewers 6.52 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 5.40 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.96 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.62 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.50 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.61 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.08 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 17 vs Milwaukee Brewers 32.7 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Offense & matchup — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.355 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.336 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.364 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.391 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.418 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.396 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.428 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.457 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.361 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.387 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.407 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.446 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.563 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.539 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.006 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.051 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Series & head-to-head — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.500 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates -1 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Betting Lines
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Milwaukee Brewers 1, Pittsburgh Pirates 2 — Pittsburgh Pirates win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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