← All picks for May 23, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
May 23, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Pittsburgh Pirates
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Milwaukee Brewers (17 edges vs 6 for Pittsburgh Pirates).
Note: the model leans Pittsburgh Pirates even though the simple edge count favors Milwaukee Brewers. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.250 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.450 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates -1.75 vs Milwaukee Brewers -1.40 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 2.25 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.05 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.45 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.667 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.667 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.333 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.858 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Season to date — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 2.96 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.31 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4.29 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.39 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.364 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.375 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 87.0 vs Milwaukee Brewers 91.6 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed
The starting pitching matchup between Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 2.01 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.29 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.09 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.10 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 9.19 vs Milwaukee Brewers 7.90 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.65 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.06 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 7.40 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.96 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.65 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.47 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.73 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.93 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 17.7 vs Milwaukee Brewers 35.7 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Offense & matchup — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.345 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.325 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.350 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.376 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.369 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.357 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.364 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.397 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.361 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.376 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.403 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.427 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.563 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.649 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.016 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.051 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Series & head-to-head — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates -3 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Betting Lines
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Milwaukee Brewers 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 6 — Pittsburgh Pirates win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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