New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox

May 21, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Boston Red Sox

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Boston Red Sox (16 edges vs 7 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Boston Red Sox

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox 0.450 vs New York Mets 0.400 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0.15 vs New York Mets -0.15 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 4.55 vs New York Mets 3.40 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 4.40 vs New York Mets 3.55 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.667 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 0.659 vs New York Mets 0.294 — leans Boston Red Sox

Season to date — leans Boston Red Sox

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox 4.60 vs New York Mets 4.26 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 4.37 vs New York Mets 3.22 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.545 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 103.2 vs New York Mets 100.9 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Boston Red Sox

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox 2.90 vs New York Mets 5.62 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 1.23 vs New York Mets 1.42 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 11.03 vs New York Mets 13.50 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 1.11 vs New York Mets -6.06 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 2.05 vs New York Mets 2.50 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 1.25 vs New York Mets 1.44 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 3.59 vs New York Mets 3.99 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 22.7 vs New York Mets 15 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — leans Boston Red Sox

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox 0.375 vs New York Mets 0.396 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.522 vs New York Mets 0.473 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 0.375 vs New York Mets 0.367 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0.526 vs New York Mets 0.457 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 0.402 vs New York Mets 0.394 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0.516 vs New York Mets 0.527 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0.575 vs New York Mets 0.794 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.027 vs New York Mets -0.002 — leans Boston Red Sox

Series & head-to-head — leans Boston Red Sox

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox 1 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 2 vs New York Mets -2 — leans Boston Red Sox

Betting Lines

Boston Red Sox -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 5, Boston Red Sox 1 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.