New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox

May 20, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Boston Red Sox

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Boston Red Sox (13 edges vs 9 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Boston Red Sox

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox 0.450 vs New York Mets 0.450 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0.55 vs New York Mets 0.20 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 5.10 vs New York Mets 3.80 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 4.55 vs New York Mets 3.60 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 0.915 vs New York Mets 0.526 — leans Boston Red Sox

Season to date — leans Boston Red Sox

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox 4.65 vs New York Mets 4.35 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 4.45 vs New York Mets 3.24 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.364 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 103.3 vs New York Mets 101.7 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Boston Red Sox 3.68 vs New York Mets 2.79 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 1.16 vs New York Mets 1.10 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 7.98 vs New York Mets 6.21 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 2.74 vs New York Mets -2.88 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 3.96 vs New York Mets 2.33 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 1.40 vs New York Mets 1.50 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 4.30 vs New York Mets 4.19 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 19.7 vs New York Mets 16 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between New York Mets and Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox 0.383 vs New York Mets 0.411 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.538 vs New York Mets 0.511 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 0.371 vs New York Mets 0.378 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0.540 vs New York Mets 0.404 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 0.384 vs New York Mets 0.403 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.497 vs New York Mets 0.544 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.690 vs New York Mets 0.690 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0.001 vs New York Mets -0.008 — leans Boston Red Sox

Series & head-to-head — leans Boston Red Sox

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox 1 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 2 vs New York Mets -2 — leans Boston Red Sox

Betting Lines

New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 0, Boston Red Sox 2 — Boston Red Sox win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.