New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox

May 19, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (13 edges vs 7 for Boston Red Sox).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between New York Mets and Boston Red Sox, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

Boston Red Sox 0.450 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0.65 vs New York Mets 1 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 5.30 vs New York Mets 4.70 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 4.65 vs New York Mets 3.70 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.333 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0.818 vs New York Mets 0.496 — leans Boston Red Sox

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between New York Mets and Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox 4.68 vs New York Mets 4.42 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 4.52 vs New York Mets 3.25 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.444 vs New York Mets 0.455 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 103.2 vs New York Mets 102.0 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Boston Red Sox 3.90 vs New York Mets 0.99 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 1.30 vs New York Mets 1.28 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 7.48 vs New York Mets 8.56 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0 vs New York Mets 0.39 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 4.44 vs New York Mets 2.21 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 1.48 vs New York Mets 1.33 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 4.09 vs New York Mets 4.03 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 20.7 vs New York Mets 17.3 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Boston Red Sox 0.383 vs New York Mets 0.416 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.537 vs New York Mets 0.514 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 0.330 vs New York Mets 0.392 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.475 vs New York Mets 0.503 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.382 vs New York Mets 0.408 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.494 vs New York Mets 0.528 — leans New York Mets
Boston Red Sox 0.696 vs New York Mets 0.563 — leans Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox -0.000 vs New York Mets -0.008 — leans Boston Red Sox

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between New York Mets and Boston Red Sox does not clearly favor either side.

Boston Red Sox 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
Boston Red Sox 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 1, Boston Red Sox 3 — Boston Red Sox win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.