New York Mets vs New York Yankees

May 18, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (17 edges vs 6 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.550 vs New York Mets 0.500 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 2.75 vs New York Mets 1.25 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.95 vs New York Mets 4.95 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.20 vs New York Mets 3.70 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.616 vs New York Mets 0.337 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.61 vs New York Mets 4.47 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.78 vs New York Mets 3.15 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 0.545 vs New York Mets 0.455 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 112.2 vs New York Mets 103.2 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.55 vs New York Mets 3.25 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.77 vs New York Mets 1.34 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 6.61 vs New York Mets 8.46 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees -0.06 vs New York Mets 1.13 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.57 vs New York Mets 1.27 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 0.91 vs New York Mets 0.98 — roughly even
New York Yankees 2.23 vs New York Mets 3.05 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 19 vs New York Mets 18.3 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between New York Mets and New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.409 vs New York Mets 0.421 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 0.575 vs New York Mets 0.526 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.372 vs New York Mets 0.420 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 0.439 vs New York Mets 0.508 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 0.417 vs New York Mets 0.406 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.555 vs New York Mets 0.538 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.684 vs New York Mets 0.673 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.009 vs New York Mets -0.016 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 1.50 vs New York Mets -1.50 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 2, New York Yankees 8 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.