New York Mets vs New York Yankees

May 17, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (16 edges vs 9 for New York Mets).

Note: the model leans New York Mets even though the simple edge count favors New York Yankees. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.550 vs New York Mets 0.500 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 2.70 vs New York Mets 1.30 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.95 vs New York Mets 4.90 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.25 vs New York Mets 3.60 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.560 vs New York Mets 0.272 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.69 vs New York Mets 4.50 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.80 vs New York Mets 3.17 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 0.545 vs New York Mets 0.455 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 112.3 vs New York Mets 103.5 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Yankees 4.72 vs New York Mets 1.33 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 1.27 vs New York Mets 1.11 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 8.44 vs New York Mets 9.67 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 4.73 vs New York Mets 2.18 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 4.09 vs New York Mets 2.05 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 1.14 vs New York Mets 0.95 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 2.65 vs New York Mets 2.92 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 20 vs New York Mets 17.7 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.415 vs New York Mets 0.417 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.576 vs New York Mets 0.527 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.434 vs New York Mets 0.378 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.552 vs New York Mets 0.574 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 0.410 vs New York Mets 0.408 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.554 vs New York Mets 0.528 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.563 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees -0.005 vs New York Mets -0.010 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 1 vs New York Mets 0 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4 vs New York Mets -4 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 10.5 (BetOnline.ag)

Final Score

New York Mets 3, New York Yankees 2 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.