Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies

May 16, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (15 edges vs 8 for Pittsburgh Pirates).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.300 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.95 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -1.75 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 4.70 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 2.40 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 3.75 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.15 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.333 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.638 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.111 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.59 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.07 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 4.23 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.30 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.273 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 102.2 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 87.5 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Philadelphia Phillies 7.15 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.25 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies 1.63 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.27 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies 8.74 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.86 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies -3.95 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -4.42 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies 4.58 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.54 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies 1.22 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.18 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 3.00 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 2.46 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies 19.7 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 17.3 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Offense & matchup — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.389 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.355 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.489 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.382 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.384 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.366 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.464 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.358 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.418 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.360 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.509 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.415 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.788 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.916 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies 0.029 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.006 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies does not clearly favor either side.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Pittsburgh Pirates 4, Philadelphia Phillies 8 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.