New York Mets vs New York Yankees

May 16, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (15 edges vs 7 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.550 vs New York Mets 0.500 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 2.70 vs New York Mets 1.45 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.90 vs New York Mets 5 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.20 vs New York Mets 3.55 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.667 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.847 vs New York Mets 0.400 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.68 vs New York Mets 4.56 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.84 vs New York Mets 3.11 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.455 — roughly even
New York Yankees 112.7 vs New York Mets 104.1 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Yankees 1.71 vs New York Mets 4.44 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.85 vs New York Mets 1.25 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 11.08 vs New York Mets 11.96 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees -0.96 vs New York Mets -4.93 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 4.58 vs New York Mets 1.83 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 1.17 vs New York Mets 0.97 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 2.79 vs New York Mets 3.15 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 19.7 vs New York Mets 16.7 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.409 vs New York Mets 0.419 — leans New York Mets
New York Yankees 0.578 vs New York Mets 0.535 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.445 vs New York Mets 0.449 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.664 vs New York Mets 0.530 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.420 vs New York Mets 0.402 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.559 vs New York Mets 0.532 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.690 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.012 vs New York Mets -0.017 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between New York Mets and New York Yankees does not clearly favor either side.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 2, New York Yankees 6 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.