Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets

May 14, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (22 edges vs 6 for Pittsburgh Pirates).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.550 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.300 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.70 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -1.65 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 5.20 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 2.65 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.50 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.30 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.769 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.006 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.66 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.05 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.09 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.40 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.273 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 104.8 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 87.2 — leans New York Mets

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

New York Mets 1.93 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 2.86 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.92 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Mets 7.71 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.72 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.19 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.26 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Mets 2.29 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.29 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.02 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.47 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.96 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 2.34 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Mets 16.7 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 15 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.424 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.367 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.544 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.390 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.439 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.302 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.580 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.337 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.386 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.339 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.517 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.387 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.829 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.418 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -0.039 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -0.029 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 1 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -1 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Pittsburgh Pirates 4, New York Mets 0 — Pittsburgh Pirates win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.