← All picks for May 14, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies
May 14, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (15 edges vs 7 for Philadelphia Phillies).
Note: the model leans Philadelphia Phillies even though the simple edge count favors St. Louis Cardinals. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.550 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.650 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.15 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.50 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.85 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 3.50 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.70 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.370 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.779 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Season to date — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.60 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.28 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.07 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.74 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.600 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 102.1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 103.0 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Philadelphia Phillies 2.48 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.69 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.34 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.45 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 8.07 vs St. Louis Cardinals 6.82 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.29 vs St. Louis Cardinals -3.08 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.95 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.20 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.87 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 3.65 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.12 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 20 vs St. Louis Cardinals 14.3 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Offense & matchup — Mixed
The offensive matchup is closely contested between St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.389 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.402 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.476 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.477 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.378 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.379 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.455 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.410 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.422 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.431 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.478 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.542 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.678 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.551 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.033 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.029 — roughly even
Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.200 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.800 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies -1.40 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.40 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Betting Lines
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
St. Louis Cardinals 1, Philadelphia Phillies 2 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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