St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies

May 13, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (20 edges vs 3 for Philadelphia Phillies).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.550 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.650 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.90 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 4.75 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.90 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 3.85 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.90 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.842 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.111 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.71 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.38 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 4.17 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.82 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.600 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 102.1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 103.0 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.55 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.97 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 1.31 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.19 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 10.01 vs St. Louis Cardinals 8.31 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 3.98 vs St. Louis Cardinals -1.63 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 3.57 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.91 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.94 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 3.04 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.22 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 17.7 vs St. Louis Cardinals 11 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.389 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.402 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.476 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.477 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.378 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.415 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.455 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.491 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.405 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.426 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.492 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.536 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies 0.533 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.527 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.016 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.024 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.250 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.750 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies -1.75 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.75 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.