Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets

May 12, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (18 edges vs 5 for Pittsburgh Pirates).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.550 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.300 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.85 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -1.75 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 5.40 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 2.65 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.55 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.40 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.667 — roughly even
New York Mets 1.111 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.132 — roughly even

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.74 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.10 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.14 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.46 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 105.3 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 87.6 — leans New York Mets

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.

New York Mets 3.25 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 2.37 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Mets 1.30 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.02 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Mets 7.81 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 8.01 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.62 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.19 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.72 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.30 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.24 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.61 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.08 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 2.94 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Mets 19.3 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 15.3 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.429 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.369 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.566 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.397 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.387 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.366 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.582 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.399 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.413 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.348 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.544 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.371 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.575 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.945 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Mets -0.016 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -0.021 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets does not clearly favor either side.

New York Mets 0.500 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 — roughly even
New York Mets 0 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Pittsburgh Pirates 3, New York Mets 4 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.