← All picks for May 12, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies
May 12, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (18 edges vs 5 for Philadelphia Phillies).
Note: the model leans Philadelphia Phillies even though the simple edge count favors St. Louis Cardinals. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.650 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.25 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 5.20 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.25 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.20 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.641 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.569 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Season to date — Mixed
Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies.
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.78 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.41 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.20 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.86 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.625 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.600 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 102.7 vs St. Louis Cardinals 103.4 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Philadelphia Phillies 2.39 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.88 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.87 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 9.57 vs St. Louis Cardinals 8.48 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.55 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.07 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.32 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 1.14 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.84 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 2.50 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.36 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 16.7 vs St. Louis Cardinals 9.3 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.402 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.404 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.497 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.472 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.351 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.374 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.421 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.402 — roughly even
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.401 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.421 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.475 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.536 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.557 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.788 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies -0.002 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.017 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies -2 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Betting Lines
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (BetOnline.ag)
Final Score
St. Louis Cardinals 3, Philadelphia Phillies 2 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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