← All picks for May 11, 2025
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies
May 11, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans San Diego Padres
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned San Diego Padres (25 edges vs 2 for Colorado Rockies).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans San Diego Padres
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.
- Colorado Rockies 0.100 vs San Diego Padres 0.550 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies -4.15 vs San Diego Padres 0.95 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 2.80 vs San Diego Padres 4.65 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 6.95 vs San Diego Padres 3.70 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 0 vs San Diego Padres 0.667 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 1.190 vs San Diego Padres 2.652 — leans San Diego Padres
Season to date — leans San Diego Padres
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.
- Colorado Rockies 2.95 vs San Diego Padres 4.66 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 6.14 vs San Diego Padres 3.24 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 0.083 vs San Diego Padres 0.571 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 86.3 vs San Diego Padres 101.8 — leans San Diego Padres
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans San Diego Padres
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.
- Colorado Rockies 14.21 vs San Diego Padres 1.78 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 2.32 vs San Diego Padres 0.92 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 5.21 vs San Diego Padres 10.68 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 1.21 vs San Diego Padres -0.35 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 6.15 vs San Diego Padres 8.24 — leans Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies 1.52 vs San Diego Padres 1.58 — roughly even
- Colorado Rockies 3.37 vs San Diego Padres 4.98 — leans Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies 22.7 vs San Diego Padres 12 — leans San Diego Padres
Offense & matchup — leans San Diego Padres
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.
- Colorado Rockies 0.319 vs San Diego Padres 0.375 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 0.403 vs San Diego Padres 0.444 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 0.351 vs San Diego Padres 0.501 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 0.451 vs San Diego Padres 0.670 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 0.349 vs San Diego Padres 0.420 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 0.459 vs San Diego Padres 0.506 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 0.406 vs San Diego Padres 0.649 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies 0.030 vs San Diego Padres 0.045 — leans San Diego Padres
Series & head-to-head — leans San Diego Padres
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.
- Colorado Rockies 0 vs San Diego Padres 1 — leans San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies -8.20 vs San Diego Padres 8.20 — leans San Diego Padres
Betting Lines
San Diego Padres +1.5 | O/U 11.5 (BetOnline.ag)
Final Score
San Diego Padres 3, Colorado Rockies 9 — Colorado Rockies win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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