Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets

May 11, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (16 edges vs 6 for Chicago Cubs).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.550 vs Chicago Cubs 0.550 — roughly even
New York Mets 1.80 vs Chicago Cubs 0.80 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 5.45 vs Chicago Cubs 5.45 — roughly even
New York Mets 3.65 vs Chicago Cubs 4.65 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs Chicago Cubs 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.162 vs Chicago Cubs 0.550 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.71 vs Chicago Cubs 5.78 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 3.17 vs Chicago Cubs 4.42 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs Chicago Cubs 0.556 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 104.1 vs Chicago Cubs 104.4 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 2.39 vs Chicago Cubs 3.81 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.41 vs Chicago Cubs 1.41 — roughly even
New York Mets 9.23 vs Chicago Cubs 8.58 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.32 vs Chicago Cubs -1.11 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 3.72 vs Chicago Cubs 5.27 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.40 vs Chicago Cubs 1.35 — roughly even
New York Mets 3.82 vs Chicago Cubs 3.32 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 16.3 vs Chicago Cubs 25 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.421 vs Chicago Cubs 0.377 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.546 vs Chicago Cubs 0.524 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.425 vs Chicago Cubs 0.353 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.528 vs Chicago Cubs 0.409 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.402 vs Chicago Cubs 0.419 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 0.543 vs Chicago Cubs 0.579 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 0.649 vs Chicago Cubs 0.447 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -0.019 vs Chicago Cubs 0.042 — leans Chicago Cubs

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.500 — roughly even
New York Mets 2 vs Chicago Cubs -2 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 6.5 (Fanatics)

Final Score

Chicago Cubs 2, New York Mets 6 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.