Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians

May 9, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (13 edges vs 8 for Cleveland Guardians).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Cleveland Guardians 0.600 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 — roughly even
Cleveland Guardians -0.30 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.85 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Cleveland Guardians 3.95 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.55 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Cleveland Guardians 4.25 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.70 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 0.667 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Cleveland Guardians 2.194 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.321 — leans Cleveland Guardians

Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Cleveland Guardians 4.03 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.89 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Cleveland Guardians 4.38 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.35 — roughly even
Cleveland Guardians 0.545 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.556 — roughly even
Cleveland Guardians 96.4 vs Philadelphia Phillies 103.2 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

Cleveland Guardians 5.25 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.94 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Cleveland Guardians 1.79 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.35 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Cleveland Guardians 11.25 vs Philadelphia Phillies 10.62 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians -0.93 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.73 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 3 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.97 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 1.08 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.15 — roughly even
Cleveland Guardians 2.43 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.66 — roughly even
Cleveland Guardians 24 vs Philadelphia Phillies 19 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Offense & matchup — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Cleveland Guardians 0.368 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.408 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Cleveland Guardians 0.466 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.499 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Cleveland Guardians 0.422 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.399 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 0.492 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.586 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Cleveland Guardians 0.377 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.425 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Cleveland Guardians 0.507 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.476 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 0.963 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.678 — leans Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 0.009 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.016 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians does not clearly favor either side.

Cleveland Guardians 0.500 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — roughly even
Cleveland Guardians 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 0, Cleveland Guardians 6 — Cleveland Guardians win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.