Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets

May 9, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (11 edges vs 8 for Chicago Cubs).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.600 vs Chicago Cubs 0.550 — roughly even
New York Mets 1.80 vs Chicago Cubs 0.75 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 5.25 vs Chicago Cubs 5.35 — roughly even
New York Mets 3.45 vs Chicago Cubs 4.60 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs Chicago Cubs 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.825 vs Chicago Cubs 0.935 — leans Chicago Cubs

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.64 vs Chicago Cubs 5.87 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 3.13 vs Chicago Cubs 4.34 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.778 vs Chicago Cubs 0.556 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 103.0 vs Chicago Cubs 104.8 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Chicago Cubs

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

New York Mets 2.96 vs Chicago Cubs 2.76 — roughly even
New York Mets 1.10 vs Chicago Cubs 0.85 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 9.55 vs Chicago Cubs 7.06 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.48 vs Chicago Cubs 1.63 — roughly even
New York Mets 2.79 vs Chicago Cubs 4.22 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.45 vs Chicago Cubs 1.22 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 3.15 vs Chicago Cubs 2.77 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets 22.3 vs Chicago Cubs 21.3 — leans Chicago Cubs

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.418 vs Chicago Cubs 0.378 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.544 vs Chicago Cubs 0.527 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.415 vs Chicago Cubs 0.359 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.472 vs Chicago Cubs 0.449 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.393 vs Chicago Cubs 0.380 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.512 vs Chicago Cubs 0.521 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.575 vs Chicago Cubs 0.818 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Mets -0.026 vs Chicago Cubs 0.002 — leans Chicago Cubs

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Chicago Cubs and New York Mets does not clearly favor either side.

New York Mets 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.500 — roughly even
New York Mets 0 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Chicago Cubs 2, New York Mets 7 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.