← All picks for May 7, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays
May 7, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (21 edges vs 5 for Tampa Bay Rays).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.450 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.550 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays -0.20 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.25 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 3.70 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.35 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 3.90 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.10 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.667 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 — roughly even
- Tampa Bay Rays 1.261 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.495 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Tampa Bay Rays 3.86 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.77 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 3.89 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.43 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.182 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.429 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 93.3 vs Philadelphia Phillies 103.3 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Tampa Bay Rays 4.66 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.81 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 1.17 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.38 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 8.38 vs Philadelphia Phillies 11.08 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays -5.33 vs Philadelphia Phillies -0.74 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 4.22 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.82 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 1.69 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.90 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 4.04 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.74 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 17.3 vs Philadelphia Phillies 18.3 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.345 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.413 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.383 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.511 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.302 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.407 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.212 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.616 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.353 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.428 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.397 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.484 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.963 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.678 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.007 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.016 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Tampa Bay Rays 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Tampa Bay Rays -4 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Betting Lines
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Philadelphia Phillies 7, Tampa Bay Rays 0 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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