San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees

May 7, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (18 edges vs 7 for San Diego Padres).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs San Diego Padres 0.550 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 1.85 vs San Diego Padres 0.30 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.95 vs San Diego Padres 3.65 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.10 vs San Diego Padres 3.35 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.333 vs San Diego Padres 0.667 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 1.347 vs San Diego Padres 1.005 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.46 vs San Diego Padres 4 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.84 vs San Diego Padres 3.14 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 0.500 vs San Diego Padres 0.545 — roughly even
New York Yankees 111.2 vs San Diego Padres 98.9 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.52 vs San Diego Padres 6.65 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.76 vs San Diego Padres 1.87 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 7.60 vs San Diego Padres 9.78 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 1.40 vs San Diego Padres 2.70 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.22 vs San Diego Padres 5.73 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.55 vs San Diego Padres 1.27 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 2.54 vs San Diego Padres 4.83 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 16.7 vs San Diego Padres 18.7 — leans New York Yankees

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.408 vs San Diego Padres 0.371 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.519 vs San Diego Padres 0.422 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.364 vs San Diego Padres 0.377 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 0.495 vs San Diego Padres 0.408 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.418 vs San Diego Padres 0.417 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.556 vs San Diego Padres 0.522 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.782 vs San Diego Padres 0.661 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.009 vs San Diego Padres 0.046 — leans San Diego Padres

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs San Diego Padres 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 4 vs San Diego Padres -4 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

San Diego Padres 3, New York Yankees 4 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.