Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals

May 6, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (17 edges vs 4 for Pittsburgh Pirates).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.350 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals -0.45 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -1.15 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 3.65 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.35 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.10 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.50 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.553 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.398 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.28 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.25 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.26 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.67 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.625 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.429 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 103.2 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 89.5 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

St. Louis Cardinals 3.21 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.26 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.96 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.02 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 8.36 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 8.31 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 1.05 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.39 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals 3.41 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.70 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.17 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.31 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 3.38 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.35 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 37.7 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 23.7 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.375 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.393 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals 0.431 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.437 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.449 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.380 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.593 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.474 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.410 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.379 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.497 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.448 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.539 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.782 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals 0.034 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -0.013 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals does not clearly favor either side.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Pittsburgh Pirates 1, St. Louis Cardinals 2 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.