San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees

May 6, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans San Diego Padres

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned San Diego Padres (15 edges vs 12 for New York Yankees).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans San Diego Padres

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs San Diego Padres 0.600 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 1.50 vs San Diego Padres 0.85 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.55 vs San Diego Padres 3.60 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.05 vs San Diego Padres 2.75 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 0 vs San Diego Padres 1 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 0.733 vs San Diego Padres 0.926 — leans San Diego Padres

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between San Diego Padres and New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.28 vs San Diego Padres 4.03 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.86 vs San Diego Padres 2.88 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 0.500 vs San Diego Padres 0.600 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 110.5 vs San Diego Padres 99.0 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between San Diego Padres and New York Yankees grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

New York Yankees 6 vs San Diego Padres 1.74 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 1.38 vs San Diego Padres 0.90 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 10.12 vs San Diego Padres 9.29 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees -0.50 vs San Diego Padres -0.28 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.22 vs San Diego Padres 1.90 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 1.50 vs San Diego Padres 0.85 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 2.49 vs San Diego Padres 3.35 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 18.3 vs San Diego Padres 23.7 — leans New York Yankees

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.404 vs San Diego Padres 0.364 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.525 vs San Diego Padres 0.421 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.380 vs San Diego Padres 0.401 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 0.561 vs San Diego Padres 0.464 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.382 vs San Diego Padres 0.418 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees 0.523 vs San Diego Padres 0.518 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.667 vs San Diego Padres 0.418 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees -0.022 vs San Diego Padres 0.054 — leans San Diego Padres

Series & head-to-head — leans San Diego Padres

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.

New York Yankees 0 vs San Diego Padres 1 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Yankees -1 vs San Diego Padres 1 — leans San Diego Padres

Betting Lines

San Diego Padres +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

San Diego Padres 3, New York Yankees 12 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.