New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks

May 6, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (14 edges vs 9 for Arizona Diamondbacks).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Arizona Diamondbacks 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.600 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks -0.10 vs New York Mets 1.80 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 5.15 vs New York Mets 5.20 — roughly even
Arizona Diamondbacks 5.25 vs New York Mets 3.40 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.333 — roughly even
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.100 vs New York Mets 0.897 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks 5.14 vs New York Mets 4.68 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 5 vs New York Mets 3.14 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.375 vs New York Mets 0.400 — roughly even
Arizona Diamondbacks 105.2 vs New York Mets 103.0 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Arizona Diamondbacks 3.90 vs New York Mets 3.25 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.10 vs New York Mets 1.30 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 9 vs New York Mets 7.81 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 4.52 vs New York Mets 0.62 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 5.91 vs New York Mets 2.66 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.45 vs New York Mets 1.28 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 7.08 vs New York Mets 2.95 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 18.7 vs New York Mets 22.3 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks 0.378 vs New York Mets 0.418 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.494 vs New York Mets 0.544 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.387 vs New York Mets 0.415 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.429 vs New York Mets 0.472 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.418 vs New York Mets 0.398 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.556 vs New York Mets 0.527 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.655 vs New York Mets 0.563 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.039 vs New York Mets -0.020 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Arizona Diamondbacks 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
Arizona Diamondbacks -0.75 vs New York Mets 0.75 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 1, Arizona Diamondbacks 5 — Arizona Diamondbacks win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.