Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals

May 5, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (19 edges vs 5 for Pittsburgh Pirates).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.350 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals -0.45 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -1.20 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 3.55 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.20 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.40 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.033 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.521 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.24 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.26 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 4.29 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.63 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.625 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.429 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 101.8 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 89.4 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.94 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 6.04 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.48 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.70 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 5.32 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 7.25 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals 7.88 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -0.69 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals 3.60 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.84 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 1.07 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1.26 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 3.20 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.99 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 37.3 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 24.7 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.376 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.380 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.428 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.427 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.415 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.368 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.532 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.381 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.397 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.393 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.470 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.453 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.696 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.563 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.021 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.014 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Series & head-to-head — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 0.667 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals -1 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 1 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Lines

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Pittsburgh Pirates 3, St. Louis Cardinals 6 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.